Bears Deny Bulls – You Tube Channel in Full Swing!

It has been about a year in progress, but it has finally come to light. We have started to create weekly videos on whether or not we are in bear market territory, indexes we like, and financial commentary. If you would like to view the video for this week (or subscribe to the channel), just click the link below. I’d love to hear your feedback if you are willing.

You Tube ChannelRed Oak Financial Asset Management

This week’s price action is summed up to be another sideways week where the bulls or bears could not control the S&P 500 for more than a day. On Monday’s open the bulls raced to buy and the S&P 500 quickly moved higher before the bears stepped in and pulled the S&P 500 down and the bears continued their momentum into Tuesday closing the S&P 500 on it’s lows. Wednesday and Friday were days for the bears to capitalize since they had price pinned on support and they were so close to breaking it, but they could not do it either of the days.

 

 

Right now the S&P 500 is trading sideways and each time price breaks the trading range it is quickly drawn back in. Many times a sideways trend is followed by a price direction akin to the previous trend. For example, if price was trending up, then went sideways, the inclination would be for price to break to the upside for another bull trend. However, as price action stays sideways for longer, confusion continues for longer and probability slides down for either side. We are 22 bars into this sideways action. The bulls have lost probability. Of course, they can still win the current battle of this trading range, but it is currently a toss-up.

Market breadth is still wavering sideways just like price. The longer-term breadth barely moved while the shorter-term breadth slipped slightly lower into oversold territory and quickly reverted back to right about where we started the week. Overall, breadth is not giving us too much as it is moving sideways just as price is right now.

We are coming into a short week of trading and along with the short week we have a couple of big potential market moving events. The first are the FOMC meeting minutes to be released on Wednesday giving additional details of the last fed meeting. The second set of data is the employment numbers. Overall, the data is expected to be positive.

The current long-term trend of the S&P 500 is still up while the shorter-term is sideways. The support and resistance levels remain the same from last week. A break is imminent and could happen any day. We want to see how price responds around support and resistance as well as follow through if price does break. No trading on Tuesday! Happy July 4th!

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