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One Absolute Truth about the Stock Market – What to do About It – Finally, Is It Time to Sell Stocks?

November 3rd, 2018

YouTube Video – I’m going to tell you a cold, hard fact about the stock market. Nobody knows with 100% certainty if it is going to go up, down, or sideways. Speculation is difficult…particularly about the future. So what do you do about? Well, one thing NOT to do is worry about market direction. You’ve heard this before; Don’t worry about what you can’t control. You can’t control market direction so it is absolutely unhealthy to worry about it. Furthermore, what you can control, you can…so why worry about it!? Here is what you can do though…Control Risk. There are really two main schools of thought when it comes to controlling risk. The first and most common way people tend to control risk is through diversification. Essentially what you are attempting to control through diversification is volatility. If you are using this approach, it often times makes sense holding onto investments…

S&P 500 Bulls Lose Last Week’s Battle

October 28th, 2018

YouTube Channel Link – Video Format The S&P 500 bulls didn’t have much strength at all last week. The index slid down almost 4% by the close of Friday…3.94% to be exact. Obviously, the 50% retracement level did not hold. The good news for the bulls is that the S&P 500 is sitting on support and the short-term price action of Friday could be construed as positive. The longer-term momentum of the S&P 500 is barely holding on to positive. It could close negative this month, but it is doubtful that it will with as much time as we have before the end of October. If the momentum turns negative, it will be a signal to pull the plug on the longer-term positions and preserve capital. When it comes to the current positions, we got stopped out of US Aerospace and Defense and Transportation. The other US Sector positions were…

S&P 500 Rises…Barely

October 20th, 2018

YouTube Video – Check it Out, Like and Subscribe! The S&P 500 posted an incremental gain of .02% for the week. Until Thursday, the bulls looked like they had a great chance to show a strong buy signal, but they could not hold on. Markets typically go from directional…either up or down…to sideways. This past week was a great example of that unfolding. The markets moved down swiftly and last week there was a pause, or sideways move in the S&P 500. The longer-term momentum of the S&P 500 is still positive even after the past few weeks of price action. In order for the momentum to switch negative on the longer-term basis, we would need to see about another 8% drop in price. An 8% drop in price would be a heavy warning according to momentum. Small caps are still underperforming large caps and value is underperforming relative to growth….

S&P 500 Slides

October 13th, 2018

Video with Graphs – Watch, Like, & Subscribe! The S&P 500 bears came out of the woodwork last week. We got a sell signal three weeks ago along with the sell trigger a couple of weeks ago. The bears certainly fulfilled the validity of the sell trigger this week pulling the S&P 500 down over 4% for the week. The good news for the bulls is that they were able to close the S&P 500 off of the lows for the week showing at least some hope for price action to the upside this week. The US equities market has certainly softened over the past few weeks. However, when we look at the longer-term monthly picture, this is pull-back in an up trending market. The US equities are still outpacing short-term treasuries on a 12-month rolling basis and far above the All World (ex-USA) index. With that, we are still in…

Sell Trigger on S&P 500

October 6th, 2018

You Tube Video – Like & Subscribe The S&P 500 bears showed some strength last week and triggered a sell. The S&P 500 ended up finishing the week down .97%. The good news is for the bulls is that the S&P 500 is still above short-term support, still within the bull channel, and above the most recent broad trading range. The longer-term momentum is still lending itself to US equities since the S&P 500 is still greatly outpacing the MSCI All World (ex-USA) index and short-term treasuries. We still want to focus on buy signals over sell signals until the relationships or dynamic of the markets change. The international markets continue to falter and if they continue with their trajectory, they will certainly finish October under the 12-month performance. This would mean the broad international indexes propose a high risk scenario according to longer-term momentum. It was an active week…