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S&P 500 Starts Down Leg – Will it Continue?

March 9th, 2019

Check out our YouTube Channel / Video For at least right now, resistance was held and the S&P 500 finished down 2.16% for the week. The good thing the bulls have going for them coming into this week is that the bears were not strong enough to close the week on the lows. On Friday morning, the S&P 500 opened down and the bulls were able to reverse the very short-term downward trend just after lunch. Just about anything equity related was down for the week. International stocks were for the most part down and US stocks were down with the exception of the Utility Index. The instruments that showed some life were US fixed income instruments, the US Dollar, gold, and silver. The US Dollar and Gold relationship is interesting because they typically have an inverse relationship. Gold has advanced steadily since October of 2018 putting pressure on the dollar…

S&P 500 Goes Higher – Still in Key Inflection Area

March 2nd, 2019

YouTube Video – Click & Subscribe The S&P 500 eked out a small gain for the week. It finished up .39% after some relatively light selling. It just seems the S&P 500 didn’t want to finish off February with a ‘bad’ week. Nine out of the past ten weeks have ended positively. Even though the week was up, we are still in the area of resistance which means it is a key inflection point in the S&P 500. The month of February rotated the longer-term momentum positive for the S&P 500 and remained negative for the MSCI All World (ex-USA) index. The S&P 500 of course can continue higher, but suspect we will see at least a shallow pull back in the coming weeks considering we are within an area of resistance, some of the US sectors have started to flash sell signals, and market breadth has not been advancing with the…

S&P 500 Grinds Higher into Resistance

February 23rd, 2019

You Tube Channel – Watch Video – The S&P 500 finished the week up .61% after it was all said and done on Friday afternoon. It’s like there is no gravity to the S&P 500 right now. The trading for the past 9 weeks has been pretty darn close to vertical. This type of price action is called a tight bull channel. It’s important because typically (not all the time, but typically) a pullback after a tight bull channel is not a reversal of trend to the downside without at least some sideways movement. Said another way…the market typically needs to work out some upwards inertia before reversing the trend. The monthly momentum, which is our last line in the sand for the warning of a bear market held positive for this week. The signal, or final reading, does not close until the end of each month, but unless we see a…

Weak Sell Signal Not Enough to Attract Bears

February 17th, 2019

YouTube Video – The S&P 500 had another bullish week. The index advanced by 2.5%. It seems there is not room for any bears. Certainly those that sold last week are feeling a little pressure right now with the index closing on its’ high for the week. Yes, there was a sell signal last week, but the sell trigger did not go off. The bears had a chance to capitalize, but they could not. The longer-term momentum on the S&P 500 has advanced back to the upside on the 12-month scale. Of course the month isn’t over, but if it holds where it is, the S&P 500 will certainly be back in positive territory. The All World (ex-USA) index still has some work to do, it is still about 9.5% below the point in which it would signal positive momentum. When we dig a little bit deeper into the markets, there…

S&P 500 Weak Sell Signal – But Context Good for Bears

February 10th, 2019

YouTube – Watch! Subscribe! The bulls have their work cut out for them this week. Over the past seven weeks, this is the second weakest close for the week. It was a neutral week, which suggests bulls taking profits, so we don’t know if it will be enough to entice additional selling. This is also a sell signal on the weekly time frame. Price action below last week’s low is a sell trigger in what could be a leg down. The longer-term momentum also slowed for the week. The S&P 500 is in line with treasuries, which is our line in the sand when it comes to longer-term risk on and risk off. The international markets continue to lag behind the US markets. When we dig a little bit below the surface, the market has softened for sure. The Consumer Staples sector has continued to outperform the Consumer Discretion sector, which suggests…