Where are the Bears?

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With last week’s price action, one might think the bears have given up. Do the bears even stock market anymore?? The S&P 500 was up 1.57% for the week. The bears were not able to hold back the bears hardly at all beyond Tuesday’s price action. The S&P 500 opened up on Wednesday and pretty much rose the rest of the week.

The longer-term momentum is still negative for the S&P 500 and MSCI All World (ex-USA) Indices. The S&P 500 is barely negative. Furthermore, our second trend/momentum reading is not flashing a bull warning signal. If you would have asked me on Thursday if it was going to flash bullish, I most certainly would have said, “Probably with this advance.” Alas, it did not. The bottom line, we are still in a ‘risk off’ stance when it comes to the longer-term movement, or monthly decisions, in the markets.

With regards to the other markets were involved in, the US Dollar was basically flat for the week, emerging markets were up pretty good, Technology was up with the market of course, and the International Government Inflation-Protected Bond holding was up as well.

There is nothing to add to the portfolio this week. In the later part of 2018, it took the S&P 500 bears 3 weeks to drop the S&P 500 to its’ recent low. It has taken the S&P 500 6 weeks to bounce this far back and we are still just shy of 100 points away from reaching the start of that leg. This isn’t untypical. The markets often move down much faster than they move up because all it takes is a lack of interest for the markets to fall. We’ll see if we get that lack of interest in the coming weeks. As always, it is very interesting! Have a great week!

Warm regards,

Adam Straseske, CMT

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