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S&P 500 Weak Sell Signal – But Context Good for Bears

February 10th, 2019

YouTube – Watch! Subscribe! The bulls have their work cut out for them this week. Over the past seven weeks, this is the second weakest close for the week. It was a neutral week, which suggests bulls taking profits, so we don’t know if it will be enough to entice additional selling. This is also a sell signal on the weekly time frame. Price action below last week’s low is a sell trigger in what could be a leg down. The longer-term momentum also slowed for the week. The S&P 500 is in line with treasuries, which is our line in the sand when it comes to longer-term risk on and risk off. The international markets continue to lag behind the US markets. When we dig a little bit below the surface, the market has softened for sure. The Consumer Staples sector has continued to outperform the Consumer Discretion sector, which suggests…

Where are the Bears?

February 2nd, 2019

YouTube Video – Like and Subscribe! With last week’s price action, one might think the bears have given up. Do the bears even stock market anymore?? The S&P 500 was up 1.57% for the week. The bears were not able to hold back the bears hardly at all beyond Tuesday’s price action. The S&P 500 opened up on Wednesday and pretty much rose the rest of the week. The longer-term momentum is still negative for the S&P 500 and MSCI All World (ex-USA) Indices. The S&P 500 is barely negative. Furthermore, our second trend/momentum reading is not flashing a bull warning signal. If you would have asked me on Thursday if it was going to flash bullish, I most certainly would have said, “Probably with this advance.” Alas, it did not. The bottom line, we are still in a ‘risk off’ stance when it comes to the longer-term movement, or monthly…

Bears Try – Lack Enthusiasm

January 27th, 2019

VIDEO – Watch and Subscribe! It was an eventful, but flat week for the S&P 500. The short trading week ended with the S&P 500 being down a messily .22%. When the market opened on Tuesday morning, it looked like the bears were going to run away with it for the week, but they simply could not hold on. They were failing by Wednesday and the rest of the week was neutral to up. January is already coming to a close…I know it is a cliché, but where is the time going? Every. Single. Day is a blessing and they continue to fly by without discrimination. OK…back on point…we will get the monthly readings by the close of this week and the bulls must do some work for the longer-term momentum to turn positive. Until the momentum switches back, we are still taking a more conservative stance. We did get…

Bulls Crush Bears – Possible Exhaustion

January 20th, 2019

Video Format – Watch | Like | Subscribe It was a good week for the S&P 500 bulls. They pushed the S&P 500 higher by 2.87% for the week. They started the week out slow, but were able to turn things around and didn’t look back after Monday morning. They were able to blow through the first area of resistance and aren’t too far off from the next level. The recent price action is certainly bullish, but it hasn’t been enough to turn the longer-term momentum to the positive just yet. Both the S&P 500 and All World (ex-USA) indices are still sitting in a risk off position. There is this constant conflict between the markets depending upon time-frame. For example, the daily trend could be up while the weekly trend is down. This is exactly where we are today. The markets we want to focus on this week are the…

Bulls Close Week at Resistance

January 14th, 2019

Click – Watch, Like & Subscribe! The S&P 500 finished the week up 2.54% after the dust settled Friday afternoon. By Wednesday afternoon, the S&P 500 had come pretty close to setting the highs for the week. Thursday’s price action pierced a little higher, but could not make much progress and the index ended up flat on Friday leaving it about what the high was for Wednesday. Last week we talked about resistance being in the 2600 range on the S&P 500. The high price of the week for the S&P 500 was 2599.5. This is the second push higher on a daily time-frame so it makes for a very interesting coming week. On the longer-term, the momentum still shows negative with regards to US Equities and the broad MSCI All World (ex-USA) indices. This is a slower reading, so it is going to take more positive price action for…