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S&P 500 Sets Up Possible Buy Trigger on Daily Time Frame

February 11th, 2018

YouTube Channel – Watch and Subscribe! The S&P 500 continued to slide down this past week…it slid down by 5.16% to be exact. I say slid, if you were watching, it probably felt more like falling than sliding. It is understood that some people have been “unnerved” about this recent decline. Yes, of course, the market can do whatever it wants to do, but we want to see more proof before we say the great bull-run is over. Market structure can be categorized four ways. In categorical order, breakout, tight channel, broad channel, and finally trading range. We just broke out of the tight channel and the broad channel has held. Now, we will see if the channel can hold or if we will transfer into a trading range. We will be looking for a trading range to break to the downside before being very apprehensive about the bear market. Bull /…

S&P 500 Bulls Take Profits

February 4th, 2018

YouTube Channel – Watch and Subscribe! The S&P 500 let off some steam this past week with a decline of 3.85%. I don’t know if the bears are committed to shorting in mass at this stage, but it surely seems the bulls took some profits last week. Yes, the S&P 500 was down this week in a sharp fashion, but it was not down far enough to turn the trend or break the bullish structure of the S&P 500. Bull / Bear Market The S&P 500 and All World (ex-USA) Index are still greatly outpacing short-term treasuries despite the slip in prices this past week. The weaker of the two indices, the S&P 500, is still outpacing treasuries by about 16% on a 12-month rolling basis. That is a lot of room to move around. It certainly doesn’t mean that the markets would have to fall that much to take action,…

Bulls Pull Out Another Victory

January 28th, 2018

YouTube Channel – Watch and Subscribe! OK, this is starting to get ridiculous. The S&P 500 was up 2.23% for the week. The most the bears could do is get a little sideways price action a couple days. Other than that, the bulls controlled the S&P 500 and quickly silenced any bears willing to make a peep…or rather whimper. Bull / Bear Market Both the S&P 500 and All World (ex-USA) indices are greatly outpacing short-term treasuries. Therefore, we are still in a risk on stance. Said another way, the bull market is alive and well. This could be euphoria as the S&P 500 has gathered steam over the past few weeks and is one of the largest up weeks since late 2016. That is a sign of exhaustion, but that doesn’t mean the market will turn on a dime. Larger markets typically don’t turn sharply and “fall out of bed.”…

Not a Bear to be Found

January 21st, 2018

YouTube Channel – Watch and Subscribe! It’s like the bears are in hibernation. The S&P 500 finished up .86% for the week. There was some slight profit taking during the week, but as prices modestly declined in the S&P 500, the bulls once again showed their power and pushed the index to record highs. I don’t know how much longer this can go on, but the bulls certainly have control of price action at this moment. Bull / Bear Market Of course, the S&P 500 and All World (ex-USA) indexes are both in strong bull markets. Both of the indices are greatly outpacing treasuries on a 12-month rolling basis. The discrepancy between short-term treasuries and the indices is about 25.5% on a 12-month rolling return. The two equity indexes are just about neck and neck in their performance against each other. If you look at the instruments that are actually tradeable,…

S&P 500 Bulls Continue Assault on Bears

January 14th, 2018

YouTube Channel – Watch and Subscribe! The S&P 500 once again has advanced to new highs. It finished up 1.57% after the doors were closed on Friday. This weekend, I was on a camping trip with the Cub Scouts. I couldn’t help but overhear another couple of parents talking about being worried about the market highs. It reminded me that the market crawls a wall of worry and as you know, worrying is no way to live. So, let’s not worry and just pay attention to what the market is whispering, and act accordingly. Bull / Bear Market          The S&P 500 and MSCI All-World (ex-USA) indices both continue to greatly outpace treasuries. The S&P 500 is slightly underperforming of the two. In this case, the market is whispering to us that there is no need to worry about being caught in a bear market and that the attention should be on…