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S&P 500 Slides

October 13th, 2018

Video with Graphs – Watch, Like, & Subscribe! The S&P 500 bears came out of the woodwork last week. We got a sell signal three weeks ago along with the sell trigger a couple of weeks ago. The bears certainly fulfilled the validity of the sell trigger this week pulling the S&P 500 down over 4% for the week. The good news for the bulls is that they were able to close the S&P 500 off of the lows for the week showing at least some hope for price action to the upside this week. The US equities market has certainly softened over the past few weeks. However, when we look at the longer-term monthly picture, this is pull-back in an up trending market. The US equities are still outpacing short-term treasuries on a 12-month rolling basis and far above the All World (ex-USA) index. With that, we are still in…

Sell Trigger on S&P 500

October 6th, 2018

You Tube Video – Like & Subscribe The S&P 500 bears showed some strength last week and triggered a sell. The S&P 500 ended up finishing the week down .97%. The good news is for the bulls is that the S&P 500 is still above short-term support, still within the bull channel, and above the most recent broad trading range. The longer-term momentum is still lending itself to US equities since the S&P 500 is still greatly outpacing the MSCI All World (ex-USA) index and short-term treasuries. We still want to focus on buy signals over sell signals until the relationships or dynamic of the markets change. The international markets continue to falter and if they continue with their trajectory, they will certainly finish October under the 12-month performance. This would mean the broad international indexes propose a high risk scenario according to longer-term momentum. It was an active week…

S&P 500 Stalls

September 29th, 2018

YouTube Update – Click & Subscribe The S&P 500 stalled last week and fell .54% after the dust settled Friday afternoon. The weekly price action is still bullish for the S&P 500. As we’ve commented on in the videos, the S&P 500 will be bullish until there is either a significant move to the upside at an angle higher than it’s current projection, or if there is a break of support. Either one of those would cause concern for the bulls. It was a big week simply because the monthly readings came in…and we had some changes in the readings from last month. One thing that did not change is that we want to focus on the US equities markets over the broad international markets as the S&P 500 continues to greatly outpace the MSCI All World (ex-USA) Index. Another thing that did not change is the relationship between the…

Bulls Hold Strong

September 22nd, 2018

You Tube – Click & Subscribe The S&P 500 snapped up .85% for the week closing at all-time new highs as the bull train continues. The price action remains bullish until one of three things happen. The first, the S&P 500 breaks below the 2860 range. The second, price breaks below the current bull channel. Thirdly, price breaks above the channel line which would signal euphoria and would not be sustainable for a meaningful amount of time without at least a pause in upside action. 12-month momentum is still skewed towards the S&P 500. International markets did have a good week, but on the longer-term we still want to focus on the US. We are close to an actionable item with regards to momentum. US Large Caps have gained the edge over US Small Caps. However, we wait for the signal to close at the end of the month before taking…

2018 Tax Cuts – Do They Make Taxes Great Again?

September 22nd, 2018

There have been many rumblings in the financial planning community regarding the Trump tax cuts for 2018. A couple of the big changes are the removal of the personal exemption and the doubling of the standard deduction. Much of the concern among planners’ centers around people who will lose their personal exemption and potentially lose on their overall deductions. My wife and I fit into this category, so I decided to re-run my 2015 taxes using the new tax code. I use 2015, because it was the last full year of “normal” income before we moved to Lubbock for the PhD program at Texas Tech. We are married filing jointly with no children, large charitable contributions, property taxes, and home interest. In 2015, our deductions and exemption added up to $27,814 ($19,814 in deductions and $8,000 in exemptions). Under the new tax code, we lose the $8,000 exemption, but the…